The Mebane Faber Timing Model

Introduction

“Stocks fluctuate” J.P. Morgan said, but this says nothing about which way. The acquisition time is generally understood as important, but the time of sale should certainly not be underestimated. 

We can divide the asset class stocks into different segments:

  1. Growth-stocks and value-stocks 
  2. Small-, Mid- and Big-caps
  3. The different sectors

The investor may have made a choice here, but the next question is: when should I buy. The proverb "timing is everything” is well known. What are good tools to determine the best time to buy?  Mabane Faber wrote an interesting paper on the subject: A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation

About the man

The strategy described by Mabane Faber is easy to understand and apply to each asset class. However, it is a long term-strategy which may prove difficult to stick by for active investors. Investing is like soccer, everyone can do it, but not everyone is Johan Cruyff. Uncertainty is an inherent part of investing, and every investor will have to deal with it. But with this paper in hand, it all seems a little bit easier. Anyone can invest, but doing it well requires training and discipline!

For more information, check the website of Mebene Faber

About the system

This core of the system is determining the right moment to buy or sell any of the five assets:

  • 0% or 20% in U.S. equities
  • 0% or 20% in Shares rest of the world ex U.S.
  • 0% or 20% in Bonds
  • 0% or 20% in Real Estate
  • 0% or 20% Commodities

It is always easy to invest in hindsight. Good research is only possible with "old data". However, there is the advantage that Faber's report was published in 2006, so we can check it's performance over the years between then and today. In particular the positions and returns in 2008 are very interesting.

The game rules of the Timing strategy 

The buying and selling moments are surprisingly simple for anyone to understand. It is also a quiet strategy, i.e. once a month there is a check before placing orders on the stock to be passed. 

  • Buy the Line: Buy when the price at the end of the month is greater than the average 10 months.
  • Sales Rule: Sell when the price at the end of the month is less than the average 10 months.

Purely looking at U.S. stocks - the S&P 500, are the results of the strategy TIMING displayed together with the buy and hold basis.